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Trump or Biden - Which is Better for Gold?

Around the world, an unprecedented number of voters are set to participate in historical elections this year, with at least 64 countries (along with the European Union) accounting for approximately 49% of the world's population. The outcomes of these elections are poised to have significant implications for many, potentially shaping some portion of future events for years to come.

In Taiwan, the pro-Democracy candidate gained the most votes, an unpleasant result for the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

Elsewhere, political successions are underway, with the U.K.'s ruling Conservative Party facing challenges due to a gloomy economic outlook. Opinion polls suggest the opposition Labour Party may prevail in the next general election promised by embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in 2024.

Notably, the impending U.S. presidential race in November is a pivotal factor, with the potential for former President Donald Trump securing a second term being identified as "the biggest danger to the world" in 2024, according to recent commentary from The Economist. Now, whether that inflammatory rhetoric is real depends, at least partly, on one’s political persuasion, it does speak towards certain views of a potential outcome of the November American election. 

Question: What does a Donald Trump presidency mean for the price of gold? Here’s a look at gold over the course of the past five conservative and liberal American presidencies.

Gold by U.S. President

The following figure has the percentage gain or loss in the price of gold across each of the past five U.S. presidents. The horizontal axis is the number of months into the given president’s time in office.

Fascinatingly, the current U.S. president, President Biden, has seen the smallest increase in the price of gold at this point in his presidency, with gold up 8.9 percent over the first 37 months of his time in office.

By contrast, the person running against Biden for possession of the White House – former President Trump, saw the price of gold gain 30.9 percent over his first 37 months in office.

Perhaps even more interestingly, neither Trump nor Biden saw the largest gains in the price of gold at this point in their presidency. That honor goes to former U.S. president Barack Obama. Over Obama’s first 37 months in office, the price of gold rose a whopping 92.9 percent. In second place behind Obama is President Bush. During Bush’s first 37 months tenure, gold rose by 55.8 percent.



Summing Up

What does this suggest is on the docket for the price of gold? Well, if history is the guide, should former President Trump regain control of the White House, we might expect the price of gold to appreciate about four times faster than another four years of President Biden. Hmm.

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